Canadian Politics – Rescuing the frog

Can we dismiss this `economists only care about GDP’ crap, once and for all?

November 14, 2013November 14, 2013 by Andrew

Yesterday, the Pembina Institute and Equiterre released a report entitled Booms, busts, and bitumen: The economic implications of Canadian oil sands development. The report opens with a foreword from University of Ottawa economics professor Serge Coulombe. His opening paragraph states that, “Environmentalists don’t accept gross domestic product (GDP) as a complete measure of well-being in the … Read more

Reading the National Energy Program

August 11, 2013August 10, 2013 by Andrew

As a non-native-Albertan academic (in particular one from back east), I have learned that there are two golden rules to follow when in Alberta – don’t mention the National Energy Program, and don’t mention the National Energy Program. This post, and my next one, are going to break both of those rules.

When you fill up your tank, thank our “petrodollar”

March 11, 2012 by Andrew

Last night, I wrote a long post on exchange rates, and discussed the impact of the Canadian dollar appreciation on our purchasing power. As usual, the best way to demonstrate that increase in purchasing power is with a graphic, so here you go: What you’re looking at is the relative changes in gas prices, in local … Read more

On exchange rates and the importance of “net” exports

March 12, 2012March 10, 2012 by Andrew

Last week, BC economist Robyn Allan weighed-in on the McGuity-Redford fiasco with a post of the effect of oil extraction on the Canadian dollar, and the knock-on effects of a high dollar on Canadian industry, including the oil and gas sector. Ms. Allan makes some important points, some which surprised me, but she also makes some points which are simply not accurate. Let me start with the good, and move on to the bad.

Forecasts are wrong, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore them

February 10, 2012February 9, 2012 by Andrew

Oil price forecasts are wrong. That’s not going to change. Today’s Alberta budget has one in it, it’s aggressive, and it will be wrong. Will it be proven to be too high or too low? I haven’t a clue. But, in a province where approximately 1/3 of future provincial revenue depends directly on energy prices, their derivatives, and production quantities, forecasts are crucial and should be scrutinized. More than whether they are right or wrong, we should ask whether the forecasts are based on the best available information.

My latest in The Globe and Mail: Oil sands monitoring plan a good step forward

July 21, 2011 by Andrew

Environment Canada has released the second of two phases of a proposed environmental monitoring plan for the oil sands, and one need only look at the second name on the list of authors on the first page to understand its significance: Dr. David Schindler. Dr. Schindler is one of the most high-profile and well-respected personalities … Read more

Can green energy in Ontario avoid the same fate as Commodore?

June 30, 2011June 29, 2011 by Andrew

In this column in today’s Toronto Star, James Biggar of Leadnow.ca calls on Ontario to, “embrace the green future,” and to avoid becoming the, “Commodore 64 of the world economy, sitting on the trash heap of history.” I agree, but perhaps not for the reasons you expect.

Alberta needs to do more than tell Ottawa, “hands off the golden goose!”

May 23, 2011 by Andrew

This article, by Jason Fekete and Darcy Henton, discusses the Alberta Government’s growing anxiety with respect to the coming Federal GHG regulations for the oil and gas sector. Premier Stelmach and the Alberta Government may be late to the game, but they have moved quickly in the past to head off federal action with regulatory changes in the province.

As I wrote during the election, the Conservatives have committed to a regulatory model, which could be similar to the EPA approach in the US, although details for Canadian regulations have yet to be released. If you want to know what source performance standards will look like in the oil and gas sector in the US, look here.

What should concern Alberta is the fact that regulatory approaches generally look at each facility and ask what that facility can afford to pay. Alberta has some of the highest value uses of carbon emissions in the country – you don’t have to look far to see a story about how profitable the big oil companies are today. Under a regulatory approach, oil and gas facilities can afford to pay a great deal more than, for example, steel mills in Eastern Canada. I wrote then, and I still believe it to be the case now, that we should not be too quick to assume that the oil sands will be the first to get special treatment.

My latest Economy Lab Post: Emissions: Peter Kent’s 178 millon-ton challenge

May 19, 2011 by Andrew

It may be his most important task, and setting Canada’s GHG policy course for the next four years will not be an easy one for Environment Minister Peter Kent. By his own admission, meeting Canada’s GHG goals will be a daunting challenge and will require stringent regulations on oil and gas, electricity generation, transportation, and … Read more

Tory platform’s dirty secret – my latest Economy Lab post

April 26, 2011 by Andrew

There’s a hole in the Conservative platform…a hole so big, you could fit Canada’s oil and gas sector or every single one of our fossil-fuel power plants into it. The hole is projected to get bigger, and will be large enough to fit every single car, truck, SUV, train, bus, and ATV in Canada into … Read more