In follow-up to my post last night on EIA numbers relating to Canadian exports to the US (of course, they are US numbers, so they call them imports), I went to see how the numbers they use have changed from the 2011 to the 2012 report, and the change surprised me yet again.
I now have two interesting story lines emerging from these data. First, the story remains from last night that EIA import estimates are still significantly below NEB estimates of Canadian exports, but there’s also the increased growth projected for Canadian imports over-and-above last year’s levels. The EIA has increased their projection of 2035 imports from Canada by over 1 million barrels per day while they expect total imports to decrease over the same time period by almost 30%.
So, that actually makes the question more interesting – the EIA has become much more bullish on Canadian oil exports, but their predictions for imports remain far below those of the NEB, while their predictions for production are in-line.
Keep the comments coming.
EIA is closest to the market than the NEB. NEB outlook does not consider demand but supply. NEB discounts from supply Canadian demand and then assumes that refineries in the US will take all our crude. But even looking at the PADD that imports most of Canadian crude today PADD II, they import approximately 80% of their crude from Canada. The other factor might be the decrease in US demand. Since the publication of the QTR the Department of Energy is working seriously on reducing oil demand, other entities are working hard to increase domestic supply, the combination of both leaves us with an incredible scenario in which one the US is predicting to import 2 mbd less from OPEC countries by 2035 and 1 mbd more from Canada. Overall the most meaningful change is the increase in domestic production predicted to increase in 1.2 mbd combined with their decrease in consumption (or almost stagnant consumption).
Thanks Horacio,
The EIA has actually increased the amount of Canadian crude they expect to be processed in the US, and also increased the amount they expect to see produced here in Canada. It’s the gap between those two which I am trying to reconcile.
Andrew
Maybe NEB talks gross exports, where EIA talks net? No point of EIA counting imports from Canada if they are only passing through on the way east?