Math lesson

Among the most intimidating aspects of working on oilsands, or any energy question, is unit conversions.  It seems that the hidden objective of most any publication is to express all results in the most inaccessible manner possible.

One of the biggest surprises for me in writing this blog has been the degree to which I use it as a reference. I will often look back at old posts for a link or a calculation, so I thought I’d build on that and write out some calculations I am working on this evening and try to break down some of that inaccessibility in the process.

Tonight’s math lesson involves working from a steam:oil ratio for an in situ oil sands project to get the total GHGs from natural gas combustion and electricity consumption associated with the production of the bitumen.

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Thinking in terms of renovated bungalows, not megatons.

Greenhouse gas emissions are an abstract concept for most people. Ask a sample of Canadians what Canada’s annual GHG emissions are, and you’ll likely get a very broad range of answers (they’re about 750 million metric tons (Mt) per year).

The figures are so abstract that errors like Gasland producer Josh Fox claiming that Canada’s oilsands emit 36 Mt of GHGs per day go unnoticed by many – likely because they don’t have the context to catch the mistake rather than because they don’t care about the exaggeration. If you’re one of those people who didn’t catch the error, 36 Mt per day is about half of the world’s total GHG emissions, while oilsands emissions are about 40 Mt per year.

I am guilty of this abstraction myself – I deal in megatons all the time, whether it’s talking about carbon capture and storage, oilsands, or just about anything else I do – and I don’t often stop to think about the scale of those numbers. I decided to do something about this, using the example of Keystone XL.

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If you’re talking jobs or GHGs, alternative scenarios matter

As seems to be the case with every aspect of the discussion of the Keystone XL pipeline, the claims with respect to job creation or lack thereof are all over the map. I’ve written at length about the right way to assess the GHG emissions implications of Keystone XL and the logic used there should also be applied to employment numbers tied to the project.

The API claims that “U.S. jobs supported by Canadian oil sands development could grow from 21,000 jobs today to 465,000 jobs by 2035” – ironically even a little higher than claims cited in this article by Kate Sheppard – while a couple of reports I found on TransCanada’s website cited numbers as high as 553,000 permanent jobs tied to the pipeline.  Sorry, TransCanada – the number which matters and on which decisions should be made is not how many people will be employed building the pipeline and supplying all of the services associated with building it, or the employment tied to the use of the oil transported. These gross employment figures are meaningless. As with GHG’s, only net impacts relative to the most likely alternative matter.

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Globe and Mail Energy Policy Feature

Since Premier Ed Stelmach announced his resignation on May 27, 2011, the race for the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta — and the race to be the next Premier of Alberta — has been in full swing. Six candidates are vying to lead Alberta’s PCs, who this past week celebrated 40 consecutive … Read more

Alberta PC Leadership Q&A

With the co-operation of each of the PC Leadership candidates, I will be putting together an Energy and Environment Q&A on the Globe and Mail‘s Economy Lab site. This evening, I have sent the following three questions to each of the candidates, and asked that they respond, in 200 words or less for each question, … Read more

Fort McMurray Mayor Melissa Blake on Ethical Oil

I just tuned-in to a fascinating Twitter conversation between Fort McMurray Mayor Melissa Blake and Alheli Picazo.  Ms. Picazo’s question was as follows; I was wondering if you had given your permission for your likeness (to be) used for the “ethical oil” PR campaign. Especially since your image appears next to a woman about to … Read more

A clever hoax

Late this evening, an email arrived in my inbox that looked rather believable. The text of the email stated that: EthicalOil.org has expanded efforts to identify the Canadian oil industry as the world’s most ethical by calling on the federal government to ban companies active in conflict oil regions from operating in Canada. I jumped … Read more

Respect our park land – An open letter to the Edmonton District Soccer Association

UPDATED July 29th, 8:00 am – see below for details.

Mr. Mike Thome, Executive Director, Edmonton District Soccer Association

Dear Mr. Thome,

On Wednesday evening, July 27, I set out for one of my favorite activities in the City of Edmonton – a run in our River Valley.  My preferred route takes me past the City fields on 84st between the Archdiocese and McNally High School. As I set out on my run, a senior men’s soccer game was just wrapping up on the southern-most field – a field known as Forest Heights #1.  It was a lovely night, and it was wonderful to see people out enjoying the parkland and to see many family members watching the end of the game and enjoying the wonderful view of the City skyline. I doubt there is a better view from any soccer field in the City.

By the time I returned from my run, everyone had packed up and gone their separate ways, but unfortunately had not taken with them some of what they brought to the game.  I stopped to pick up:

  • over 40 individual pieces and balls of tape;
  • three empty water bottles;
  • multiple plastic wrappers from the tops of Gatorade/Powerade bottles;
  • cardboard packaging from Umbro soccer socks;
  • A can of Deep Woods Off (recommended by Bob Izumi, who I am sure would prefer it be disposed of appropriately).

All of this was in the bench areas, each of which is conveniently equipped with a garbage can.

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